It’s a war

UKRAINE - In Brief 01 Mar 2014 by Dmytro Boyarchuk

Putin requested permission of the parliament to start military intervention. Effectively, this statement is equivalent to official announcement of war to Ukraine. Currently, we observe simultaneous large-scale destabilization at the southeast. In many cities pro-Russian forces organized large and aggressive demonstrations. It is surprising that all of them started at the same time. For some of the demonstrations Russian citizens from neighboring Russian regions were brought by buses. Apparently, the main target is to show that it is more internal conflict rather than a conflict between Ukraine and Russia. What will be next? It is difficult to predict. Russia has much stronger army and without external support the country might be occupied in few weeks. At the same time we anticipate a fierce guerilla war what will make Russian forces' stay in Ukraine extremely costly for Russian Federation. There is also a chance that this step is another provocative action and the main target just to stay in Crimea but it went too far already. We should wait today for official statements of Ukrainian authorities and for reaction of countries which guaranteed security to Ukraine under international agreements.

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