It's the "base effect", stupid!
This is an econ-only Weekly, as our politics author returned from a conference with a severe flu and is out of commission at the moment. We very much apologize for the inconvenience, but we shall, as usual, continue with updates during the week.
Industrial production, in sequential terms, has continued its bumpy ride in November, although annual figures are starting to show solid growth, thanks to the base effect.
The current account deficit was slightly higher than expected, as the 12-month rolling surplus declined further in November, but monthly data is still showing the core balance (overall balance less energy and gold) remains firmly in surplus territory, with much of the deterioration in the 12-month figure explained by (once again) base effects -- and also, gold trade.
The budget deficit continued to worsen over a year ago, but the upwardly revised NEP deficit target was met, as expected. Primary spending growth was rapid, but this was partly offset by solid growth in tax revenue, which seems to owe to myriad factors, like inflation, base effects, a weaker lira over a year ago and probably some rebound in consumption.
The CBRT’s task is very difficult, with which we empathize, because it has to juggle several conflicting goals to help Ankara meet its growth target, but so is ours, frankly speaking, because we have to constantly monitor and try to make sense out of this what looks increasingly like a smoke-and-mirrors show.
Now read on...
Register to sample a report