June industry, retail sales and trade data not quite as bad as it looks at first glance

HUNGARY - In Brief 06 Aug 2026 by Istvan Racz

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This morning's KSH report of the June industrial output and retail sales data has been assessed as unfavourable by some local analysts. This judgement is based on the fact that industry shrank 1.4% mom and retail turnover fell 0.4% mom, both volume terms and sda basis.But indeed, these figures are not quite as bad as one could think after just a brief look. Industrial output still rose 4% yoy in June and by 3.2% yoy in Q2, the latter after 0.8% yoy in Q1 and a 3.6% reduction in full-year 2025. Such figures would have been warmly welcome a few months ago. And even on a month-on-month basis, output has not fallen out of the ascending trend seen in recent months, as the fixed-base chart (Dec 2010 = 100) shows:Compared to the previous quarter, output expanded by 1.7% in Q2, after 1.4% in Q1. Please, also note that the forint appreciated sharply in the same period, average EURHUF decreasing by 10.9% yoy in Q2, following a smaller euro depreciation of 5.2% yoy in Q1. The fact that the latest improvement in the industrial sector was achieved in the face of an appreciating forint could be seen even as impressive.Retail sales is a somewhat less positive story, as regards most recent developments. But even so, sales grew by 0.3% qoq and 3% yoy in Q2, after +1.6% qoq, +4.6% yoy in Q1, and +3.1% in all-year 2025. Here, it needs to be taken into account that the forward shift of the Easter holiday to April 3 from April 20 this year also shifted the related shopping campaign, traditionally the second heaviest one every year, adding to Q1 and taking away from Q2 in terms of retail turnover. Anyway, here is the fixed-base chart for retail sales: Finally, merchandise trade data for Jun...