Kazakhstan macro: budget revenues to outperform this year, prompting a possible rise in expenditure

KAZAKHSTAN - Report 31 Mar 2026 by Evgeny Gavrilenkov

We mentioned previously that the republican and local budgets performed well in 2M26, with the former posting a small deficit of about KZT0.1 trln in 2M26, while the full-year deficit was targeted at KZT4.6 trln. This deficit appeared low, not least because expenditures lagged given that about KZT0.9 trln (from the 2M26 spending plan) remained unallocated. Overall, budgetary performance looked good amid the ongoing VAT reform, which significantly expanded the tax base. Interestingly, tax revenues grew in 2M26 year despite the lower oil export duty. In January and February 2025, for instance, the export duty was $73 and $77 per tonne, while in February 2026 it was lower ($64 per tonne). In March 2026 it increased to $69 per tonne but was still lower than a year ago. Tax revenues this year grew significantly due to a broader VAT base.

Tax collection may significantly exceed the plan this year due to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East as oil prices jumped in March and one cannot guarantee that the conflict will be over by April 1. Due to higher oil prices in March, the export duty for April was raised to $90 per tonne. Meanwhile high oil prices and the recently raised export duties fully offset the effect of a stronger tenge and temporary disruptions in the transportation of Kazakh oil. The country’s budget may get additional trillions of KZT—depending on how long the conflict lasts. If the conflict extends for a few more weeks (or even months) and oil prices in April (at least) remain elevated, then export duties in May, and possibly onward, will remain high and bring additional cash to the Kazakh budget, potentially prompting the government to raise expenditures. If this happens, inflation won’t come down as the authorities currently anticipate. Overall, uncertainty remains high amid the current conflict in the Middle East, which could easily escalate further. Thus we expect the NBK to remain conservative.

Now read on...

Register to sample a report

Register
Must have at least 8 characters
Sign-in
Forgot your password?
Copyright 2026 GlobalSource Partners. All rights reserved. This report is prepared for GlobalSource Partners’ clients and may not be redistributed, reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, retransmitted or disclosed, in whole or in part, or in any form or manner, without the express written consent of GlobalSource Partners. This report is distributed simultaneously to our website and other portals used by GlobalSource Partners. The information herein was obtained from various sources and is believed to be reliable but GlobalSource Partners does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. Neither GlobalSource Partners nor any Country Analyst, officer or employee accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct, indirect or consequential damages or losses rising from any use of this report or its contents.