Kazakhstan macro: Budget statistics confirm economic growth remains stable
Recent economic data shows that Kazakhstan’s growth rate has steadied at around 5.0%, easing on a y-o-y basis, partly due to a base effect after an unusual growth surge in 2025 that lasted until August last year. In the first eight months of 2025, the short-term indicator, tracking the activity in six key sectors—industry, agriculture, construction, transportation, trade, and IT/communications—jumped by an impressive 9.6% y-o-y. For the same period in 2026, it rose 4.9% y-o-y, matching the pace seen in the first seven months. Sector trends varied: industry grew 2.8% y-o-y in 8M26, construction soared 15.6%, mining fell 4.3%, and manufacturing climbed 8.4%, although its momentum has slowed recently. Economic statistics still face some puzzling issues, especially given the lack of consistent m-o-m and y-o-y time series. Still, despite these quirks, it seems the economy is no longer as overheated as before. Inflation is easing, accompanied by slower but still-strong real growth.
The recent budget data also shows the economy growing at a solid pace, with tax revenues holding steady thanks to this year’s tax reform—even though VAT collections are falling short of the original plan. Importantly, tax revenues remain stable despite disruptions to oil exports, as high oil prices and a stronger tenge help sustain steady oil-related income for both the National Fund and the republican budget. The authorities have sufficient funds and can readily find ways to support budgets at various levels if challenges arise. This year, we have no concerns about either economic growth or budget performance, except that an overly strong tenge limits the potential of small- and medium-size businesses outside the oil sector.
Now read on...
Register to sample a report