Kazakhstan macro: Economic statistics still look puzzling
Recent economic data shows a gradual slowdown in Kazakhstan’s growth, which seems natural y-o-y after last year’s remarkable surge in the second half. While some easing was anticipated, the extra drag on GDP from disrupted oil exports this year was harder to foresee. Even so, the forecast of around 4.5% growth, or slightly higher, is decent, although it falls short of the government’s ambitious goals. What is unusual is the growing mismatch between the different economic indicators, especially with incomplete statistics obscuring m-o-m and q-o-q chain indices. This suggests that relying solely on official GDP figures can be misleading, and that examining a wider range of time series might offer more insight into current trends and near-term prospects. These trends remain hazy amid statistical margins of error and gaps in the data.
The nation’s economy has turned out to be more sensitive to capital flows and to the uneven-yet-generous fiscal stimuli introduced by the authorities each year alongside the approved budgets. Interestingly, these measures have had a greater impact than the short-term effects of oil price fluctuations. Generally, the economy is in good shape, although proper growth accounting and forecasting remain challenging. As FDI continues to flow in, the economy will gradually diversify. While reliance on oil prices is easing, the republican budget still heavily depends on them, as well as on the exchange rate. Therefore, finding a more balanced USD/KZT rate remains an important priority.
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