Kazakhstan macro: on the right track

KAZAKHSTAN - Report 17 May 2022 by Evgeny Gavrilenkov and Alexander Kudrin

Despite the fact that the Kazakh government became less optimistic about the prospects of the country's economic growth in 2022, having lowered its GDP growth estimate to 2.1% from the previous 3.9%, the outcome may be better as the country has the chance to benefit from the fact that the Russian economy is entering a lengthy period of a kind of “special transformation” amid the ongoing "special military operation" in Ukraine and consequences that are likely to be long lasting. Apart from the fact that Kazakhstan can fill some of the niches in global markets where Russia was present previously, Kazakhstan is likely to enjoy another phase of inflow of foreign investment, and it won't be Russian money alone. It could be those foreign companies that have left or are going to leave Russia. Kazakhstan will likely maintain working relations with its neighbor, but at a distance. Such positioning will encourage entrepreneurs interested in doing business in the CIS region to consider Kazakhstan an attractive destination. The country's GDP may grow by around 3.5% this year and possibly even higher.

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