Kazakhstan macro: The recent strengthening of the tenge might not hold for long
Recent macroeconomic data from the Bureau of Economic Statistics, the Ministry of Finance, and the National Bank show that while the current economic situation appears stable and economic growth exceeds expectations, the economy could be on the verge of changes due to some lingering macroeconomic imbalances that we have discussed in earlier reports.
As the Kazakh government continues to attract foreign investors eager to contribute to the nation’s economy, greater repatriation of profits is likely in the coming years, potentially adding pressure to the already strongly negative current account (and the tenge, as well). Despite robust growth this year, the economy is becoming increasingly vulnerable and sensitive to external shocks. We previously noted that persistently negative repatriation of profits led to a contraction in real household incomes during 9M25, heightening pure domestic risks in the event of sudden shocks, such as declining oil prices or broader global macroeconomic instability.
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