Kazakhstan’s current account deficit in 2Q23 was a bit deeper than expected

KAZAKHSTAN - In Brief 02 Aug 2023 by Evgeny Gavrilenkov
The current account turned deeply negative in 2Q23 ($2.7 bn), which brought the 1H23 deficit to $3.6 bn. Exports were down y-o-y by 12.3% in 1Q23 and 8.8% in 2Q23. Imports grew y-o-y by 41.3% and 24.7% in 1Q23 and 2Q23. The trade surplus shrank from $5.6bn in 1Q23 to $4.1bn in 2Q23. Generally, the numbers matched expectations, even though the deficit looked slightly deeper than expected. The income balance and services balance were traditionally negative and of the more or less usual size. A strong tenge is encouraging more imports, and the authorities might consider updating their monetary and budgetary policies combined. The former looks too restrictive, while the latter appears too stimulative. Overall, one can expect that imports growth can moderate in 2H23, while exports can climb slightly higher on higher volumes. Even so, the current account will remain in a strong deficit in 2H23.

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