Kazakhstan's debt market: no change

KAZAKHSTAN - Report 28 Jul 2023 by Evgeny Gavrilenkov

Kazakhstan's debt market remains relatively calm. The growth of interest rates in the US and the EU apparently stopped the government from entering the foreign market in 1H23, even though the CDS spread has decreased by almost 100 bps since the beginning of the year, creating a favorable opportunity for issuance this autumn. The budget deficit is being financed by issuing domestic bonds in KZT. Since January 1, net borrowing here has amounted to around $8 bln. Taking into account the fact that the planned borrowing program for 2023 amounts to KZT5.7 trln (about $12.8 bln), we estimate the probability of placing sovereign Eurobonds by the end of the year as moderate. Tenge-denominated securities look quite attractive for investment, especially in the light of a possible NBK base rate cut on the back of decelerating inflation.

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