Kazakhstan’s economy continues to grow steadily

KAZAKHSTAN - In Brief 15 Nov 2023 by Evgeny Gavrilenkov

---

According to a preliminary estimate of the Bureau of National Statistics, in 9M23, the country’s GDP expanded by 4.7% y-o-y—not a bad result despite some deceleration of growth compared to 1H23 (5.0% y-o-y). There are still powerful 2022 base effects, which could lift GDP growth in 4Q24 and the 2023 figure in total. Agriculture was the main drag on the country’s growth, as in 9M23, it posted a 9.9% y-o-y contraction (due to a bad harvest). The other sectors continued to expand steadily. Industry was up by 4.4% y-o-y (5.4% in the mining segment and 3.2% in manufacturing). Construction grew by 12.6% y-o-y. Overall, goods production increased by 3.7% during this period. The services sector grew by 5.1%. Its trade segment (wholesale and retail trade combined) grew by 10.0%. All figures are y-o-y. Meanwhile, retail and wholesale segments grew by 6.9% and 11.9% in 10M23, which lifted total trade growth to 10.4% y-o-y. In 10M23, Total industry grew by 4.7%, as mining was up by 6.1% and manufacturing by 3.2% (all y-o-y). In October alone, Kazakh industrial production grew by 7.4% y-o-y as mining y-o-y growth accelerated to 12.6% (y-o-y). Though, manufacturing growth decelerated to 2.6% y-o-y last month. Note that monthly statistics may differ from the quarterly national accounts. Some mismatches can emerge from methodological differences or occasional revisions of the previously published monthly numbers. Nonetheless, the trend is clear – one can expect faster y-o-y growth in 4Q23.