Kerch Strait incident raises tensions

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS - In Brief 27 Nov 2018 by Alex Teddy
On 25 November three Ukrainian warships tried to sail to the Ukrainian port of Mariupol. They were intercepted by the Russian Navy. The details are disputed. The three Ukrainian vessels were captured.Ukraine has reacted angrily. President Petro Poroshenko persuaded the Rada (parliament) to pass martial law - across 10 Ukrainian borders regions for 30 days. This is less than the proposed 60 all the same it allows him to ban demonstrations in the affected areas.With a presidential election in March 2019 coming up some have accused him of exploiting the situation for electoral purposes. Opposition candidate Yulia Timoshenko warned of 'artificial' pre-election military action earlier in 2018. Mariupol is now all but lost to Ukraine as a port. Ships would have to sail through the Kerch Strait which is Russian on both sides. The Russian authorities have been stopping and searching ships for a couple of years. The delays have made using the port unviable. Mariupol is where Ukraine exports its steel from. Steel is worth 25% of Ukraine's foreign currency earnings.Tensions have been ramped up. There has been vocal support for Ukraine from NATO countries. But there has been no offer of actual assistance. It remains to be seen if President Trump will authorize new sales of military hardware to Ukraine.Trade between Russia and Ukraine has slumped since the beginning of the eastern Ukraine conflict in 2014. Further sanctions would reduce trade to almost nothing. There have been no direct flights between the two countries for over two years. There are over a million Ukrainian guest workers in Russia. Their status could also be affected. Ukraine is only solvent because NATO countries ...

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