Kilicdaroglu-Erdogan in tactical battle, as opposition lays out economic agenda

TURKEY - In Brief 15 Jun 2022 by Atilla Yesilada

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Finally, I’m getting some serious and credible views from Erdogan and Kilicdaroglu about election timing and candidacy. These are not final, but they allow me to draw a more concise view of how the presidential election race will shape. As importantly, the Structural Reform Commission of the opposition Nation Alliance unveiled a four-point economic reform plan, which sounds too good to be true. Will the plan change voters’ perceptions? Election timing and potential contestants suddenly became the hottest topic among pundits. There is fierce competition to supply to the “market” what it wants to “buy”: Scandalous headlines. A good and startling example is an article by renown columnist and TV host Mr. Fatih Altayli of Haberturk, who claimed CHP Istanbul mayor Mr. Imamoglu, also a presidential contender, may be thinking of transferring to IYIP to be nominated for the presidential race. Sense and sensibility have never been in adequate supply in Turkish politics or commentary thereupon, which have now gone out of fashion completely. Amidst the chaos of competing and mostly ridiculous views about the issue, I resolutely stick to polls and spoken/written statements by party members to formulate my scenarios. Frist, I conclude with 70% probability that Erdogan now intends to hold elections in time, that is in June 2023. The reason? Well, in his first major public appearance after declaring his candidacy in Izmir, he told a youth rally in the city of Van that elections will be held on time. Secondly, he has subtly shifted his promise of prosperity “in the second half of the year” to “2023 will be a break-through year”. Analysis of these statements suggests he finally grasped ...