Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan face economic disaster

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS - In Brief 08 May 2022 by Alex Teddy

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The per capita income of the country is expected to be USD 1,300 per annum. That is the second lowest in the former USSR after Tajikistan. It is lower than war-torn Ukraine.Tajikistan is a mountainous land of 6 million people. It is largely bereft of natural resources. Sanctions on Russia indirectly impact Tajikistan. Economically the country is little more than an adjunct of Russia. Investments and merchandise often come from Russia. There were almost 1 million Tajiks working in Russia before the coronavirus. That number fell in 2020 and fell even more in 2022 as the Russian economy contracted. Remittances make up 30% of the economy and most of these come from Russia. They total USD 2.5 billion. It is forecast that this figure will fall by up to 33% in 2022.Russia estimates its economy will shrink 8% in 2022. But international observers say it will shrink at least 12%. This affects Tajikistan.The Tajik currency (TJS) moves up and down with the RUB. The TJS suffered volatility since February 2022. Russia has managed to support the RUB which led to TJS regaining its value. But Moscow cannot sustain such measures much longer. Salaries shall stagnate as prices rise. The IMF projects that prices will rise by 13% in 2022. Tajikistan also suffers a dearth of items that are usually purchased from Russia such as medicine, oil, gas and metals.Prices in Tajik restaurants are up 10%. The World Bank says that the Tajik economy will shrink 5% in 2022.Tajiks in Russia are the last to be hired and the first to be fired. Unemployment in Tajikistan is around 12% and rising. There is a risk that there could be mass demonstrations in the repressive state, of the kind that Kazakhstan witn...