Politics: Latent risk of Chilean-style protests?
In light of the mass violence experienced in recent weeks and months in a number of South American countries including Chile, Ecuador, Colombia and Bolivia, we must ask the question whether Mexico might be ripe for such outbreaks. While an initial response to seemingly minor policy moves were the initial catalysts (such as a fare evasion campaign by secondary students in opposition to a fare hike on the Santiago subway system, in the case of Chile), they quickly morphed into mass demonstrations and violent confrontations over the growing extent of social and economic inequality, the rising cost of living, and government cutbacks.
Mexico shares many features with those South American societies as the public has grown increasingly frustrated by high levels of socioeconomic inequality, blocked social mobility channels, inequitable access to public goods, and a declining balance between expectations and opportunities.
The electoral system effectively worked as a pressure relief valve, as such discontent led to Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s overwhelming victory in the 2018 presidential elections. As long as his government can manage the great expectations generated by that sweep and the promises his campaign and government have made to date, it will contain the threat of major eruptions of social discontent.
However, we are beginning to see indications that the post-electoral sense of hope prevailing among the citizenry is starting to erode. With presidential approval falling in recent surveys, while frustration is mounting over a weakening economy, cuts to social programs, and a lack of effective government response to key issues such as rising levels of violence and crime against women, the government may see its ability to manage the situation tested increasingly in the coming months and years.
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