Lawyers Will Change (Almost) Everything for Peace
Executive Summary
Colombia is a country of lawyers. The FARC has finally absorbed that lesson: to grasp power, instead of AK-47 held by poor peasants, it would need norms, regulations and jurisdictions. That is the stuff lawyers live for. In this vein, the FARC’s quintessential product is the Special Peace Jurisdiction (SPJ), a formidable construction of lawyers.
Manuel José Cepeda, one of the constitutional lawyers who drafted SPJ, defends the novelty of his creation, and stresses that instead of replacing the Colombian State, FARC is subjecting itself to its rules. That is the heart of the matter. In the words of Timochenko, FARC's commander in chief: "FARC is not demobilizing. Precisely the opposite, FARC will now start mobilizing."
Could SPJ be the key to opening the gates of peace? Are deep regional conflicts a thing of the past? Can the military provide Colombians with the security they have longed for 200 years? Can the (unified) left replicate the successes of other Latin American countries?
Every Colombian has different answers to these questions. We tend to be suspicious, but respect the Santos administration’s peace process. As Santos himself has put it, this is just the end of the conflict; peace will probably take a decade or two more.
GDP growth of 3.1% in 2015 was a rather good outcome, given the extent of the terms of trade shock (this will probably be the highest 2015 growth rate in the region). And these results couldn’t have come at a better time.
What now? The economic picture is mixed. The only good news comes from the manufacturing sector, with production up 8.2% in January, its highest growth in nine years. Beverages (16%), non-metallic minerals (11.4%) and vehicle assembly (59%) also turned in positive growth. But 15 sectors kept contracting, including textiles, iron and steel and, ironically, the manufacturing of vehicle parts.
Postponed fiscal adjustment will take a toll on economic activity this year and next. Over the medium run, the outlook should improve, as macroeconomic imbalances are corrected, productivity improves and the benefits of peace materialize. Until then, an adjustment is due.
Though unemployment has climbed by more than 1 percentage point, the data also offer a more positive interpretation. First, the participation rate for January was the highest in Colombian history. Second, the labor market was able to accommodate almost half of the job-seekers.
Now read on...
Register to sample a report