Less Growth and No Success in Reducing Inflation

BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Forecast 29 Jul 2013 by Marcelo Gazzano, Cristina Pinotti and Affonso Pastore
Executive Summary We have reduced the projections for GDP growth to 1.9% in 2013, and to 2% in 2014. Inflation will remain high (6% in 2013 and 6.5% in 2014); the exchange rate should stay in the range of R$2.25/US$ in 2013 and RS$ 2.30/US$ in 2014; and the trade surpluses should decline to US$ 5 billion in 2013 and to US$ 8 billion in 2014, with the current account deficits reaching 3.6% of GDP in 2013 and 3.4% in 2014. The worse economic outlook comes from both internal and external factors. In the internal sphere, there are the misguided expansionary fiscal policy, which has put higher p...

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