Life in the “post” country

COLOMBIA - Report 18 Aug 2021 by Juan Carlos Echeverry and Andres Escobar

Has economic activity returned to 2019 levels? Based on the data, the answer is a qualified “yes.” The index for economic activity rebounded in H1 2021, after falling around 7.8% in 2020, with services mainly saving the day. If social unrest doesn’t resurface with enough intensity to damage economic activity as it did in Q2, the rest of 2021 will see the economy posting strong results, as agriculture, mining, manufacturing and construction will be able to thrive.

Inflation in July surprised everyone. Monthly CPI rose 0.32%, far above the 0.04% increase expected by analysts surveyed by the Central Bank. Annual inflation is now 3.97%, barely below 4% target range. Unwinding utility price freezes, restaurants reopening after months of enforced closure and food inflation spikes on the heels of the May and June national strikes are key factors. We think there is a 75% probability of a split decision in favor of a first 25 bp hike in intervention rates, at the September Central Bank board meeting.

Now read on...

Register to sample a report

Register
Sign-in
Forgot your password?
Copyright 2024 GlobalSource Partners. All rights reserved. This report is prepared for GlobalSource Partners’ clients and may not be redistributed, reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, retransmitted or disclosed, in whole or in part, or in any form or manner, without the express written consent of GlobalSource Partners. This report is distributed simultaneously to our website and other portals used by GlobalSource Partners. The information herein was obtained from various sources and is believed to be reliable but GlobalSource Partners does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. Neither GlobalSource Partners nor any Country Analyst, officer or employee accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct, indirect or consequential damages or losses rising from any use of this report or its contents.