Limited Iranian counterstrike seems credit positive for GCC

GULF COUNTRIES - In Brief 08 Jan 2020 by Justin Alexander

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Soon after midnight, Baghdad time, January 8, Iran fired over a dozen ballistic missiles at two of the main bases hosting US forces in Iraq. The missiles struck the main al-Asad base in the western Anbar region and another base near Erbil in the Kurdistan region. Initial reports, including from Trump, suggest that there were no US casualties (or casualties from other countries in the anti-Islamic State coalition such as Australia), although damage assessments are still underway. This is broadly in line with our 3 Jan prediction that the Iranian response would most likely come in Iraq and after the Iraqi parliament had voted to eject US forces (as it did on Sunday, albeit this is non-binding on the government).The use of direct strikes, rather than proxy militias, may be enough to satisfy Iranian pride, showing their capability to threaten US forces, while their limited nature, possibly targetted to minimise the risk of casualties, would make it hard for Trump to justify a tit-for-tat strike. If so, these strikes share a remarkable similarity to the Abqaiq and Khurais strikes in September, which showed the capability of the assailant (widely assumed to be Iran, or at least its allies) to evade (US sourced) air defences and strike accurate targets, all without causing any casualties.Iran’s foreign minister, Javad Zarif, tweeted that “Iran took & concluded proportionate measures in self-defense under Article 51 of UN Charter targeting base from which cowardly armed attack against our citizens & senior officials were launched. We do not seek escalation or war, but will defend ourselves against any aggression.” This almost looks like Iran taking the high ground at a time wh...