​Lockdown watch (6)

PHILIPPINES - In Brief 14 May 2021 by Romeo Bernardo

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Metro Manila and 4 nearby provinces (NCR+) will revert to general community quarantine (GCQ) tomorrow, May 15, although “heightened restrictions” will apply. The decision to follow only incremental lifting of restrictions reflects on the one hand, the continued downtrend in covid19 cases over the past two weeks and on the other hand, the still relatively high positivity rates for new cases. The latest reproduction number in Metro Manila is estimated at far below 1[1] and ICU occupancy has fallen below 70%. Nevertheless, the number of daily cases nationwide is averaging over 6k, still high compared with less than 2k before the latest surge, and ICU occupancy needs to fall below 60% to be considered “safe.”Metro Manila was under GCQ from 3Q last year to the last week of March when it was returned to the strictest lockdown status. 1Q GDP numbers point to the limits of incremental easing of restrictions although we think this cautious approach is appropriate at this time to avoid a resurgence in the face of more transmissible variants of the virus. On the vaccine front, latest announcements reveal that close to 18 million vaccine doses will be delivered in May and June and another 13.5 million doses are expected in July. A concerted public-private effort to deploy these vaccines quickly is raising hopes that some form of herd immunity (i.e., targeted at NCR population) is within reach before yearend.CHART 1.COVID-19 statistics, 7d ave.Source: DOH[1] https://www.pna.gov.ph/articles/1139670