Politics: Low turnout for popular consultation, a setback for AMLO
Mexico’s first experience with an officially held popular consultation was marked by very low voter turnout on August 1. Promoted by President Andrés Manuel Lopez Obrador and Morena, the question that was initially to be put to voters was whether the past six presidents should be investigated and possibly prosecuted for alleged crimes they committed in and out of office. The popular consultation was a political move aimed at mobilizing broad sectors of the population against the neo-liberal policies of the past presidential administrations, which AMLO and his allies blame for the country’s ills.
From the start, the consultation was problematic. Given doubts on the constitutionality of the consultation, both in terms of its violation of the presumption of innocence and whether justice and the rule of law are to be applied or, on the contrary, whether they can be subject to society’s approval, the Supreme Court stepped in and reformulated the question, making it vague and undefined. Furthermore, the refusal of Congress to provide financing to the National Electoral Institute (INE) to organize the referendum meant a sharp reduction in the number of polling stations.
In the end, only 7,1% of the country’s 93 million voters turned out for the consultation, far below the 40% participation legally required for its results to be binding. The poor turnout was a major setback for both AMLO and Morena, both of whom had heavily campaigned for the consultation and heralded its very existence as an example of the participatory democracy they seek to promote. While AMLO and his supporters blame the INE for the dismal turnout, other factors include the confusing and vague wording of the question put to the electorate, doubts on Lopez Obrador’s stance on how to vote, and possible popular weariness with the President’s constant harping against his predecessors.
Attention will now be focused on the next popular consultation. This time the stakes are much higher, and the timing – with the vote slated for March 2022 – is closer to the 2024 presidential elections. The consultation is about presidential recall, specifically whether voters feel AMLO should continue in or leave office before the end of his term. In preparation for the consultation, AMLO and his allies can be expected to shore up what they view as the legal deficiencies in the consultations and increase their fire against the INE, seeking to modify the electoral institute as part of the president’s expected upcoming political reform.
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