Lower bond issuance likely to offset tapering

ISRAEL - In Brief 02 May 2021 by Jonathan Katz

Highlights: Economic indicators continue to point to a strong recovery Exports of hi-tech services (10% GDP) increased by 29% in January-February compared to Q420 (annualized). Private consumption rebounded sharply in Q121 with both chain store sales and credit card purchases expanding sharply. The BoI Composite Index increased by 3.5% saar in Q121, providing a conservative estimate of GDP growth in this quarter. Growth in manufacturing appear weak, but labor productivity has increased by 5.5% y/y. Inflation: We have updated our inflation forecast for April to 0.5% m/m (from 0.4%) due to increasing signs of the impact of pent-up demand, and 1.0% for the NTM (from 0.9%). The bond market: The MoF will reduce bond issuance in May to 9bn ILS from 11bn in previous two months. This is a good indicator of increasing optimism regarding the fiscal deficit this year, apparently less than 8% GDP. FX: Israeli startups raised $2.2bn in April, after raising $2.8bn in March. In the first four months of 2021, Israeli high-tech companies raised $7.6bn, more than 75% of the record $10bn raised in all of 2020. Few restrictions remain: Nearly all restrictions on activity have been lifted as 5.1ml Israelis are fully vaccinated (85% of all those above the age of 16). Few restrictions remain for those vaccinated. The number of new infections continues to decline as does the number of seriously ill. The next stage will be partially opening up incoming tourism. The Indian Variant is causing some concern and restrictions on those returning on flights from India have been placed. Politics: With only one days left for Netanyahu’s attempt to form a coalition, this option appears increasingly slim....

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