Lower rates, higher political tensions

TURKEY - Report 14 Sep 2025 by Murat Ucer and Atilla Yesilada

There are more than 50% odds that on Monday an Ankara court will declare the Grand Convention of CHP, where Ozel toppled Kemal Kilicdaroglu, null and void, reinstating the latter as trustee chairman. The first essay explains why: Kilicdaroglu’s views are very convenient for Erdogan, who shows no signs of letting go of CHP’s neck. Moreover, he hopes Kilicdaroglu could divide the party.

Yet, Mr. Ozer, too, has new tricks in his bag, meaning the very destructive struggle between Erdogan and CHP will be pursued on other fronts. In terms of domestic politics, it is difficult to find reasons to be optimistic.

In foreign policy, Netanyahu’s implicit threat of bombing HAMAS members in Turkey reminds the politics author of the movie, “The Gods Must Be Crazy”. Nevertheless, a string of hits on HAMAS members residing in Istanbul is a possibility, which may allow Erdogan to declare war on Israel and the Grand Assembly voting in a State of Emergency nationwide.

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