27 Aug 2015
by Romeo Bernardo and Christine Tang
We are downgrading our GDP forecasts to 5.7% in 2015 and 6.1% in 2016 (from 6.1% and 6.5%, respectively). The revisions reflect both the just released GDP numbers, which show moderate 1H15 growth of 5.3% (see Box), and expected crop losses from a strengthening El Niño. Our revised forecasts imply expectations of higher growth going forward, based on improving public expenditures and an anticipated boost from election spending. Nevertheless, risks ahead remain tilted to the downside with the possibility of a much more severe El Niño or a much larger downshift in Chinese growth that furthe...
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