Lula: The last move against the impeachment
The appointment of former President Lula to the Civil House Ministry (the equivalent of Chief of Staff) is a risky move that gives us an idea of the government’s current desperation. In appointing Lula, President Dilma Rousseff is, in practice, abdicating her government.
Lula will try to restart a dialogue with the governing coalition and will advocate changes to economic policy. Coordination of all strategic programs and appointments is the responsibility of the Civil House. Lula’s first challenge will be to keep the PMDB from abandoning the governing coalition. He will also be responsible for political coordination. At the party’s National Convention, on March 12, it was decided that the final determination as to whether the PMDB will leave the governing coalition will be made in 30 days.
Challenging the convention’s decision to prohibit party members from accepting appointments in the government, Rep. Mauro Lopes (MG) decided to accept an appointment to be the new minister of the Secretariat of Civil Aviation. This is a clear demonstration that the government still has the ability to co-opt part of the party and that there are still individuals within the PMDB who want to remain in the governing coalition. However, according to information received by Arko Advice from party leaders, the majority of the party (90%) advocates an exit from the governing coalition.
The Planalto now gains a little breathing room to deal with the political crisis. However, its effectiveness is highly uncertain, since Lula, with his declining prestige with the population, the business community and politicians, may be implicated further in the Lava Jato investigation. The accusations made by Sen. Delcídio do Amaral in his plea bargain deal are serious and will open new fronts for investigation. Other plea bargain deals are in the pipeline, including the deals signed by the former president of PP, Pedro Corrêa, and directors from Andrade Gutierrez and Odebrecht. Not to mention the popular demonstrations scheduled for the coming weeks, which will be especially important once the impeachment process begins to advance in the House.
Lula’s arrival in the Civil House may also result in changes to the economic team. There is resistance in the Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank to Lula’s economic agenda.
Even with the presence of the former president in the government, political instability and fragmentation in the governing coalition indicate that the chances of approval for the impeachment remain high (60%).
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