Macro update: tail risks down, frictions up

ARGENTINA - Report 27 Apr 2026 by Joaquin Cottani

Argentina’s macro program continues to deliver short-term financial stability, but the underlying tensions between disinflation, growth, and external sustainability remain unresolved. Recent developments confirm that the policy mix is effective at reducing tail risks—namely, a disorderly devaluation or a sovereign default—but is proving less successful at durably lowering inflation or reigniting broad-based economic activity. Without a shift, the policy trade-offs will become more binding into 2027.

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