Macroeconomic Outlook

COLOMBIA - Presentation 26 Oct 2018 by Juan Carlos Echeverry and Andrés Escobar Arango

Challenges for the new administration include the fate of the tax reform, the aftermath of the peace plan, and a strategy for Venezuelan refugees into the country.
Specifics topics in this Colombia presentation are:
• Possible content of financing law, according to the director of DIAN and our views
• Changes to the National Budget in Colombia
• How to reduce the budget for NCG debt amortization by COP 14 trillion?
• Pause in current account adjustment
• Deterioration in the goods and services balance adds to a new dynamic in factor payments (mostly profits)
• External financing more concentrated in net FDI
• Structural and total allowed NCG fiscal balance
• Major increase of Venezuelans entering Colombia since 2016
• 2017 MTFF – the implementation of the Peace Agreement in Colombia has cost COP 129 trillion (in a time frame of 15-years)
• Carlos Felipe Cordoba was elected Comptroller General by Congress in August 2018
• President Duque without a majority for the Tax Reform
• Support for Anti-corruption bill in Congress
• First discussion of political reform in Congress under President Duque administration
• Colombia still subject to horrors of violence and war because of coca cultivation

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