Macroeconomic Outlook

COLOMBIA - Presentation 26 Oct 2018 by Juan Carlos Echeverry and Andres Escobar

Challenges for the new administration include the fate of the tax reform, the aftermath of the peace plan, and a strategy for Venezuelan refugees into the country.
Specifics topics in this Colombia presentation are:
• Possible content of financing law, according to the director of DIAN and our views
• Changes to the National Budget in Colombia
• How to reduce the budget for NCG debt amortization by COP 14 trillion?
• Pause in current account adjustment
• Deterioration in the goods and services balance adds to a new dynamic in factor payments (mostly profits)
• External financing more concentrated in net FDI
• Structural and total allowed NCG fiscal balance
• Major increase of Venezuelans entering Colombia since 2016
• 2017 MTFF – the implementation of the Peace Agreement in Colombia has cost COP 129 trillion (in a time frame of 15-years)
• Carlos Felipe Cordoba was elected Comptroller General by Congress in August 2018
• President Duque without a majority for the Tax Reform
• Support for Anti-corruption bill in Congress
• First discussion of political reform in Congress under President Duque administration
• Colombia still subject to horrors of violence and war because of coca cultivation

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