Major growth pressure looms

CHINA - Forecast 04 Nov 2022 by FAN Gang and Chunyang Wang

Growth is slowly recovering, but pressure looms. In Q3, GDP rose 3.9% y/y, up 3.5 pps from Q2, mainly driven by infrastructure investment. Industrial output grew 4.8% y/y in Q3, up 4.1 pps from Q2.

Investment rose 5.9%, up 0.1 pps from January to August, and has been rising for two consecutive months. Infrastructure investment was strong. From January to September, infrastructure investment has risen steadily, and its growth rate reached 8.6% y/y. In September alone, it rose 16.3% y/y.

Consumption is weak, though, rising 2.5% y/y in September, down 2.9 pps from August. The household survey suggests that consumption growth will fall further.

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