MED lowers 2013 GDP forecast to 1.8% vs 2.4% in April version

RUSSIA ENERGY / FINANCE - In Brief 27 Aug 2013 by Marcel Salikhov

Main figures of an updated macroeconomic forecast prepared by the Ministry for Economic Development (MED)  were traditonally presented to the press before their official publication in September. According to a new version of the forecast, Russian economy will grow only 1.8% in 2013 (compared to 2.4% expected in April version). GDP growth for 2014 was lowered from 3.7% to 2.8-3.2% depending on scenario. Major revisions were made on investment dynamics based on current data. Investments growth was lowered from 4.6% to 2.5% for 2013. There were no significant revisions of inflation and RUB official forecasts. Downwards revision of the forecast mainly reflects economic stagnation in 1H2013 and disappointing results of 2Q2013 (+1.2% y-o-y). It comes at the lower range available estimates. In its recent overview of monetary policy CBR expected 2013 GDP growth rates at 2.0%. We expect economy to grow 2.2% this year based on household demand and some agricultural boost.The MED forecast is used for budget projections for next 3 years. So an updated forecast will be used to construct major fiscal parameters for 2014-2016. We do not expect that it will influence to a larger extent budget execution for 2013 but will definitely lead to revision of expected receipts for next few years.

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