Mexico Macro Monitor: In the first quarter of 2025, the trade balance recorded a high surplus due to an increase in non-automotive manufacturing exports and a reduction in consumer and capital imports

MEXICO - In Brief 28 Apr 2025 by Mariano Ruiz-Funes

---

In January-March 2025, the trade balance recorded a surplus of 1,097 USD million which compares to a 2,706 USD million deficit in the same period of the previous year. This result meant that the negative trade balance observed in January was offset by surpluses in February and March. CHART 1 Trade Balance, 2024-2025 (US Millions) Source: Data FxRates®. Analysis GEA Grupo de Economistas y Asociados This quarterly performance was driven by a 4% year-on-year increase in total exports, led by extractive industries (22.6%) and non-automotive manufacturing exports (10.7%), and a moderate 1.3% rise in total imports, with declines in consumer goods of -5.6% (-14.8% in petroleum-related and -4.4% in non-oil consumer goods imports), as well as capital goods imports (-7.3%) compared to the same quarter of 2024. CHART 2 Trade Balance: Selected Components, Jan-Mar 2025 (YoY % cumulative change) Source: Data FxRates®. Analysis GEA Grupo de Economistas y Asociados In March, the automotive sector’s exports rebounded (+9% after a -1.7% drop in February), with growth to both to the U.S. (+6.5%) and the rest of the world (+10.4%). Those results showed that as of March US tariff measures have not yet impacted Mexican exports and that domestic consumption and investment growth in Mexico show clear signs of slowing down. https://d34dkm9pj0t7...