Mexico’s two earthquakes: one shook the capital, the other economic growth

MEXICO - In Brief 21 Aug 2013 by Mauricio Gonzalez

Mexico suffered a mid-strong earthquake this morning, fortunately with no major consequences. That’s not the case with GDP growth figures for Q2 released yesterday by INEGI. They show a contraction of 0.74% compared to previous quarter and 1.5 % on annual basis. This came as a big surprise since the Ministry of Finance published recently an estimate of 2.5% annual increase for the abovementioned period, a number that represented consensus among analysts. The government blames this situation on slow exports, due to global economic deceleration, and a drop on remittances from Mexicans working abroad. However the official statistics show construction observed a 6% annual contraction last June, which made industrial production stagnant during the first half of the year. Official estimates for real GDP growth in 2013 were reduce from 3.5% to 1.8%. Our own revised figure is 1.6%-1.8% as opposed the previous 2.3%. More details about GDP perspectives in our next Mexico Report.

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