​Mid-week update: Cracks surface in Republic Alliance, Kilicdaroglu promises mutual forgiveness

TURKEY - In Brief 17 Nov 2021 by Atilla Yesilada

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As the Turkish Lira heads for Hades, the percolating political debate might have something to do with at least corporates buying more FX. I shall share my personal views on the exchange rate, but politics, too is heading for a four-car-pile up on the highway, which takes precedent. I must explain some unique Turkish political lingo before putting developments in perspective. The first term is “50+1” which is the share of the national vote a candidate must garner to cross the finishing line in the first round. The second round awards the post to the highest vote-getter. The second expression is “helalleşmek”, which the linked dictionary translates as “forgive each other any injury or hurt done knowingly or unknowingly”. After SP leader Karamollaoglu met president Erdogan, he told a newspaper that the latter was unhappy with the “50+1” rule. This claim started a fierce debate in Turkish politics, whether the threshold can be lowered, which would help Erdogan significantly in the next race, because several polls indicate he has some chance of beating his rivals in the first test (See below re Demirtas), but loses to everyone and their aunt in the 2nd. Several AKP frontbenchers, including former Speaker of the Parliament and Justice Minister Mr. Cemil Cicek, currently serving in the Presidential High Advisory Council, recommended amending that clause in the Constitution.President Erdogan tacitly confirmed that Karamollaoglu’s comment is correct, though he declined to push for the a.m “reform”. Immediately, MHP leader Bahceli jumped into the fray, bashing Cicek for needlessly changing the agenda, as well as refusing to concede to any modification of the “50+1” rule. This co...