Moderation Times

PERU - Forecast 19 Dec 2013 by Roberto Abusada and Fritz Du Bois (Peru)

Executive Summary Amid a less favorable international environment, and louder political noise, the Peruvian economy slowed mildly this year. The two main culprits were a decline in exports, and dwindling private investment growth. We expect GDP to grow 5% in 2013, or 1.5 pp below the robust average growth rate of the past 10 years. Though inflation was driven up by H1 supply shocks, we’ve seen monthly rates plummet. We expect the headline number to come in at marginally lower than the 3%, the upper boundary of the Central Bank’s target range, currency devaluation notwithstanding. The CAD, r...

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