Modest Rebound Likely

PERU - Forecast 17 Nov 2014 by Roberto Abusada
Executive SummaryInitial growth expectations for 2014 by both analysts and government authorities have fallen from 5.5% to 6% to the 3% area, which we still consider optimistic. We believe Q4 growth will be about 2% y/y, compared to 1.8% for Q3. We see 2014 growth at just 2.5%.More worrisome is that slowdown has spread from primary activities, especially mining, in early 2014, to non-primary activities like construction and manufacturing, due to falling domestic demand. The slump in investment is marked, and will take time to reverse.We see signs of moderate recovery in 2015, perhaps to 4.5...

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