Monitoring the economic activity trend

BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 06 Aug 2018 by Affonso Pastore, Cristina Pinotti, Marcelo Gazzano and Caio Carbone

Since the end of the truckers’ strike, the signals emitted by the high-frequency economic activity indicators have been buried in a veritable avalanche of noise, hampering identification of the economic recovery trend. Our evaluation, based on the most recent information, is that recovery continues to be slow, without perspectives for meaningful acceleration. One of the reasons is the depressive effect on fixed capital investments caused by uncertainty over the next government’s willingness to tackle the various problems preventing fiscal consolidation, starting with a major overhaul of the pension system.

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