Monitoring the pace of recovery

BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 18 Nov 2019 by Affonso Pastore, Cristina Pinotti and Marcelo Gazzano

There are no doubts that the economy has been rebounding, influenced by rising household consumption and growth of the service sector. The most recent monthly indicators point to continued growth in the third quarter, mainly led by household consumption, in turn driven by a combination of persistent (falling real interest rate) and transitory factors (FGTS account withdrawals). The impossibility of precisely estimating the relative contributions of these forces raises the margin of uncertainty about the pace of the recovery, which continues to be negatively affected by the global slowdown and the disincentive to demand produced by the fiscal adjustment.

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