MPC: On a Wing and a Prayer

TURKEY - Report 22 Dec 2015 by Murat Ucer

The Monetary Policy Committee surprised markets today – us, too, though we had not completely ruled out such an outcome – by not changing any of the rates (see chart). This is a pretty disappointing move that is hard to explain, other than, of course, by political motives. Otherwise, why would the Bank communicate its intentions so poorly? Why would it miss such an easy opportunity to score a few points vis-à-vis the markets? Why can’t it execute a hike that is not even a hike?

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