MPC preview: a hold this week, and a November call that fuel relief has made harder

POLAND - In Brief 05 Oct 2026 by Artur Radziwill

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The Monetary Policy Council (MPC) decides on Wednesday, October 7, and Governor Glapiński speaks on Thursday at 15:00. We expect the reference rate to stay at 3.75%, where it has been since March. The interesting decision is November, when the Council receives the new NBP projection, and five developments since our report of September 9 pull it in different directions. What has changed since September 9 Inflation is above the band. The September flash CPI was 4.0% y/y (0.7% m/m), the first reading above the 1.5 to 3.5% tolerance band since June 2025. Fuel rose 36.1% y/y after the CPN programme ended and VAT returned to 23% on September 1, and fuel alone explains about half of the annual rate. Core inflation was 3.3% in August, but our estimate backed out of the flash components puts September core at about 2.9%, and bank estimates sit between 3.0 and 3.2%. The NBP publishes it on October 15. However, NBP gets very detailed inflation data from GUS Statistics Poland earlier than the public and the MPC will know more tomorrow. The large discrepancy between the current core estimates is due to a large change in the fuel prices the core excludes and the related components, their effective shares that NBP uses and the uncaptured transmission to other prices in the flash. Fuel relief is back. From October 3 to December 31 VAT on petrol and diesel is cut to 8%, excise to the EU minimum, and daily retail price caps apply. PKO BP estimates pump prices fall 11 to 13% and headline CPI by 0.6 to 0.7pp, which puts October to December readings near 3.6 to 3.9%. The relief ends on January 1 unless extended, and Erste and mBank see CPI near 5% in January if it lapses. The windfall tax ...