MPC Preview: Thorny Dilemmas…

TURKEY - Report 26 Aug 2014 by Murat Ucer and Atilla Yesilada
What will the CBRT/Monetary Policy Committee do tomorrow at its regular monthly meeting? If we are to go with the economics, the answer is relatively straightforward: stop the cuts now. The economic rationale for rate cuts has always been weak, and it is getting weaker by the day. True, growth seems to be weakening these days -- note, for instance, the evidence in the recent IP and PMI data -- but there is hardly any room for a counter-cyclical monetary policy response, because just about every other indicator is calling for restraint. The inflation outlook is dire, with inflation expectati...

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