NBU holds rate at 15.5% amid concerns over depreciation pressures

UKRAINE - In Brief 23 Oct 2025 by Dmytro Boyarchuk
The NBU Board left the prime rate unchanged at 15.5% for the fifth time in a row, to the dissatisfaction of the financial sector, which had expected the regulator to begin an easing cycle in Q4 2025, as outlined in its September communication. According to the press release, the NBU is concerned about potential depreciation pressures, and keeping the prime rate higher is intended to encourage households to save in the national currency, thereby reducing pressure on the FX market. Recent reports about the IMF pushing for a hryvnia adjustment may be influencing the decision. Consumer inflation has been easing, at +0.3% m/m and +11.9% y/y in September, and is likely to continue moving lower through the end of the year. The NBU projects CPI at 9.2% YTD by the end of 2025. The regulator now signals a possible start to the easing cycle in Q1 2026, though without any guarantees. The next Monetary Policy Committee meeting is scheduled for December 11, and little improvement in the NBU’s mood should be expected, with this winter anticipated to be the toughest since the start of the invasion.

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