NBU holds rate at 15% as Iran-driven risks mount

UKRAINE - In Brief 20 Mar 2026 by Dmytro Boyarchuk
The NBU Board held its prime rate at 15.0%, starting from March 20th. The decision was a notable shift in tone from the February communication, driven primarily by the spike in energy prices following the ‘Epic Fury’ operation in Iran, as well as uncertainty surrounding the new IMF program. The NBU's press release also cited elevated inflation in February (+1.0% m/m and +7.6% y/y); however, this acceleration was largely predictable given the scale of Russian air strikes on energy infrastructure throughout the winter and, in the context of the war in Iran, was almost certainly not the decisive factor behind the Board's decision. Uncertainty remains substantial, and the trajectory of the situation around Iran is difficult to assess. Should energy price pressures intensify, the NBU Board may move to tighten monetary conditions at its next meeting. The next Monetary Policy Committee meeting is scheduled for April 30.

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