NBU still holds rate at 15.5% with devaluation in focus

UKRAINE - In Brief 12 Dec 2025 by Dmytro Boyarchuk
Despite easing consumer inflation, the NBU Board again left the prime rate unchanged at 15.5%, for the sixth time in a row. The NBU states explicitly that the stability of the national currency and the attractiveness of hryvnia-denominated financial instruments remain its priorities.  In November, CPI stood at +0.4% m/m or 9.3% y/y, which is noticeably below the prime rate. Still, in the context of the IMF pressure (and the genuine need) to adjust the hryvnia exchange rate to the new reality, the NBU has begun a very cautious devaluation of the currency. Because of this, the monetary authorities are concerned about maintaining household interest in hryvnia savings deposits, which is why the prime rate must remain high. The NBU expresses confidence in its ability to keep the situation under control, given sizeable gross reserves ($54.7 billion at the end of November). However, it is clear that confidence going forward depends on the availability of the EU’s proposed recovery loan, which is still under discussion. As a result, the NBU uses very cautious language, signaling its intention to refrain from easing in the foreseeable future. The next Monetary Policy Committee meeting is scheduled for January 29, and it is very likely that the monetary course will remain unchanged in January as well.

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