Net Exports, Investments and Oil Platforms

BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 12 Jul 2021 by Affonso Pastore, Cristina Pinotti and Paula Magalhães

Spurred by the strong growth of global exports, the rising commodity prices and the weak real exchange rate, Brazil’s exports have been expanding. Despite the increase of imports, particularly raw materials and intermediated goods for industry, we estimate that the trade surplus at the end of this year will amount to some US$ 85 billion. This is the picture painted by the Foreign Trade Secretariat (Secex), but it is not what is indicated by the national accounts, which have been affected by the end of the Repetro regime. In the first part of this report, we briefly analyze the import and export data, while in the second we analyze the effects of the end of Repetro on the estimates of gross fixed capital formation in the national accounts. The conclusion is that the national account numbers underestimate the contribution of net exports and overestimate the contribution of gross fixed capital formation to GDP.

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