​New risks loom large: HDP mayors and Idlib clashes

TURKEY - In Brief 21 Aug 2019 by Atilla Yesilada

---

In our Monthly Report, I‘d written that Turkey’s risk topography changes every day like kaleidoscope, but the sum total hardly moves. Two new tail-risks emerged on the horizon about which I wish to warn our readers, before I tell the tales. First, it is no longer inconceivable that Turkish and Syrian militaries will be pitted against each other in Idlib. Secondly, after the removal of 3 HDP (Kurdish) mayors from their offices, sporadic protests erupted across the country, to join others in progress. Another Gezi is not too likely, but another Kobane or head-line grabbing mass protests are possible. Idlib: Turkey will not back down On Tuesday, Assad’s regulars may have captured the town of Khan Sheikhoun at the Southern edge of Idlib Province, which also controls the major road to refugee-swollen Idlib city.Prior to the fall of the town, Syrian- or according to some sources- Russian jets bombed a Turkish convoy fetching military aid to the combat zone.Ankara warned Damascus to cease all hostilities asap, while protests against Russia’s defense of Assad are reaching a crescendo in Turkish press, suggesting the Erdogan administration is not too happy with Putin’s uncompromising stance about all “terrorists” (pro-Turkey guerrilla groups) being terminated. There are two key risks here. First, contrary to what you may read in the Western press, Ankara will not give up on Idlib. Surrender would mean at least 500K more Syrian refugees piling into Turkey as well as compromising the defense of two other Turkish dominions adjacent to the Province, Afrin and al Bab. To provide some background, Syrian refugees are so detested by AKP voters, that Erdogan had to revise long-standing ...