New year, new wave (Omicron watch)

PHILIPPINES - In Brief 02 Jan 2022 by Romeo Bernardo

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The new year has started on a sour note for the tens of thousands newly sickened by the coronavirus. Although limited sampling has meant that the Omicron variant has been detected in only a few of the local cases so far, it is reasonable to assume that the sudden multiplication of cases since Christmas is due to the new strain’s high transmissibility. From a 7-day average of less than 300 cases on Christmas day, the tally climbed to over 2,000 by January 2, with the actual count for that day at 4,600 cases.[1] Hospitals are again admitting more Covid patients but the overall occupancy so far is still a relatively low 27%. In keeping with the new protocols set up last year, government has raised the alert level in Metro Manila by one notch to level 3, canceling face to face classes and contact sports, among others while limiting close contact businesses and venues to 30% of indoor capacity. Similar to observed patterns in other countries affected by Omicron, we expect infections to continue rising exponentially in the coming days/weeks. This may also be gleaned from the sharp increase in the national positivity rate, from 1 to 2% around Christmas to 20% yesterday. The reported positivity rate for Metro Manila is closer to 30%. In addition to the stricter measures, we expect sicknesses, quarantine/isolation protocols and overall adverse impacts on confidence to magnify the usual post-holiday slowdown in economic activity, reflected in our lower than consensus 5.5% GDP forecast for this year. For now, the race to provide booster shots to the close to 50 million fully vaccinated individuals (over 45% of population) has begun. The hope is that like in South Africa, severe c...