​News from the opposition: Presidential contest and first simulation using the new Electoral Bill

TURKEY - In Brief 05 Apr 2022 by Atilla Yesilada

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Turkey’s all-knowing and infallible pundits are drawing parallels between the unexpected victory of Victor Orban in Hungary and Erdogan, suggesting that all poll results notwithstanding he and the AKP-MHP coalition might win the next race. I shall comment on this topic in detail, if there is demand from our audience, but in many major ways Turkey is not Hungary. In the latter years of his administration Orban may have caused an economic slowdown, but the depth of poverty and despair is not similar at all to Turkey. A very recent poll by Aksoypolling agency finds that 69% of respondents to its March survey can’t afford the same foods that embellishes their all-important Ramadan fast breaking meal. The ratio is 57% among AKP voters. I don’t think such a large portion of Hungarians are so badly affected by poor economic policies that they can’t afford a decent Christmas meal. Another similarity between Orban and Erdogan is amending the electoral law right before the elections. I can’t comment how Orban manipulated election rules and whether these have disadvantaged the opposition materially, but in Turkey I can report the first simulation exercise by a reputable political think-tank, named Center for Research on Economic Policy. The simulation assumes the following national voting rates for major parties: AKP 32% CHP 27%, İYİP 14% HDP 11%, MHP 8%, Others:2.3 These are somewhat similar to our updated poll-of-polls table, shown below: Under the old rules, with 40% of the national vote, the reigning Republic Alliance would have secured 252 seats (out of a total of 600). Nation with 48% gets 280, while HDP with 11% scores 68 seats. The simulation determines that under the new...