No Christmas cheer on the horizon
After a very brief period of confusion, senior US Senators began to repeat sanctions threats if S-400 anti-missile systems are activated. Ankara’s official position is that they will be made operational, but the dropping of any reference to a deadline can be viewed as a slim hope that the process will be deferred indefinitely.
In the Syrian safe zone, Turkey is safely hemmed in by Syrian Army in the North-East and West and by returning American troops in the South. Rising anti-Turkish terror acts suggest push-back against the safe zone has already begun.
With the exception of one, polls are already turning against AKP-MHP, with most revealing lack of hope about the future. It will get worse, the politics author thinks, as the winter colds hit and the populace realizes Syrian refugees are not returning home.
Industrial production rebounded in September after the sharp fall in August, m/m, much of the volatility driven by so-called “bridge days”.We still think we are a long way from a strong recovery toward 4%-5% growth rates targeted for next year. The current account was again in surplus in September, but that financed identified and unidentified outflows. Monthly current account (seasonally-adjusted) remains in surplus, too, which also suggests to us that economic activity is not particularly strong.
October budget data was poor, because of rapid growth in primary spending. There was some limited rebound in taxes, driven by special consumption tax, but that was largely driven by base effects.
The unemployment rate dropped slightly in August, but especially the youth unemployment remains elevated, and we do not think the worst is over, given our less optimistic growth forecast.
The Cosmic Guru sites 4 reasons to be pessimistic about the markets. Pick one, any...
Now read on...
Register to sample a report