October 19, the sequel

CHILE - Report 17 May 2021 by Robert Funk and Igal Magendzo

Almost nineteen months after Chile’s main political forces agreed that the path towards a new constitution was a way out of the violence and protest that gripped the country, after a pandemic, and a delayed referendum and yet another delay, Chileans finally got down to the task of electing the members of a constituent assembly that will write the actual document. The election, held over two days, also included votes for mayors, municipal councilors, and regional governors.

The results were a political earthquake, as if there had been another social explosion, but this time at the ballot box. It was October 19, the sequel.

Turnout, at 43% of those eligible to vote, was low. Most observers expected younger voters to stay away from the voting booths, which would have caused a conservative bias in the final result. The d’Hondt electoral system, which gives a premium of seats to the larger party lists, was also supposed to have given an advantage to the political right.

None of this came to pass.

We do not know yet who voted and who did not, but it could well be that under voluntary voting, those with intense (and more extreme) preferences went to the polls, and moderate voters stayed home.

The d’Hondt electoral system did not make much of a difference either. The parties of the right, organized into one single list, only obtained about 20% of the popular vote, and 37 out of 155 seats in the Constitutional Convention. Even with that dismal result, the right was not the night’s biggest loser: that honor went to the parties of the center-left former Concertación, organized into a list called Unidad Constituyente. They only won 14.5% of the vote and a meager 25 seats. Apruebo Dignidad and Lista del Pueblo, representing broad coalitions of far left and anti-systemic groups, together obtained 55 seats – comfortably more than 1/3, which if they vote together (a big if) would give them veto power over all constitutional choices. The largest single bloc of seats belongs to independents (a diverse group that mostly leans left or center left, but which will not act as a bloc), confirming the continuing challenge for Chile’s political parties.

This all suggests the 2/3 majority needed for approving any constitutional proposal will need to be negotiated for each separate article. This will increase horse-trading, slowing down the process, and it ensures that at least some of the proposals that otherwise might have been blocked by a stronger right will now be passed. Much will depend on who exactly the independents and the indigenous representatives are and what their political orientations might be. Another complicating factor is the weak showing of both center-left and center-right candidates. The constituents of the right will be dominated by controversial and hardline figures, such as former Navy Admiral Jorge Arancibia, former Education Minister Marcela Cubillos, and pro-Trump columnist Teresa Marinovic.

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