Odds of a military campaign increase

TURKEY - Report 06 Oct 2019 by Murat Ucer

This week’s note is very brief. On politics, we focus on Turkey’s potential Syria campaign, as President Erdogan has served final notice on Saturday that the Turkish military has been given marching orders to enter North East Syria.

He wants a safe zone badly for a variety of reasons. The risk of American Congress reacting furiously is high but not certain. We discuss the political implications of the military campaign, which we consider 80% certain.

On the econ front, having covered the New Economy Program and September inflation print during the week, we briefly look at a few recent data releases from a growth angle.

The key release of the week, aside from September cash budget, is August balance of payments data. There was no consensus forecast available to us at this writing, but we forecast a surplus in the current account balance on the order of $2.6-$2.7 billion, which, if true, should take the 12-month rolling surplus to about $5 billion, from $4.4 billion in July.

Our Cosmic strategist is taking a break this week, given the fluidity of the geopolitical situation. We shall continue with updates during the week.

Now read on...

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