Of mountains and mice
BRAZIL ECONOMICS
- Report
08 Jun 2026
by Alexandre Schwartsman, Cristina Pinotti and Diego Brandao
A new round of U.S. tariffs on Brazilian products, if implemented, should have only a modest macroeconomic effect. We estimate that the measures would reduce Brazilian exports by between US$0.8 billion and US$2.8 billion, a small amount compared with the approximately US$360 billion exported annually by the country. There is, however, considerable uncertainty regarding the implementation and duration of these measures, as they remain subject to judicial challenges and the volatility of Trump’s policy decisions.
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